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Local Search: The Hybrid Future

By Greg Sterling

Last year at this time there was really no such thing as "local search." Fast forward twelve months and local is one of the hottest topics in search.

Local search has recently been the subject of a series of articles by SearchEngineWatch.com editor Danny Sullivan. Search localization is simultaneously the focus of aggressive attention and effort at Google, Yahoo!/Overture, AOL and MSN, among others. All of this leads to the fundamental question: why local?


Local Advertiser Volume and Potential Revenue

The answer, as one might expect, is revenue-or more precisely, potential revenue. When you add up the number of all the paid search advertisers in the world right now, the total is approximately 380,000. Yet, there is substantial overlap among the advertisers of the different paid search networks. (It's rare a company that uses Google but not Overture and vice versa.) So, as a rough estimate, the figure is probably closer to 250,000 paid search advertisers on a global basis.

By contrast, the U.S. alone has about 10 million small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and there may be as many as 30 million more such businesses in developed countries around the world. In the U.S., most of those SMEs, the bulk of which have fewer than nine employees, conduct the majority of their business within 50 miles of their locations.

The Yellow Pages have built an enormously profitable industry servicing that local market. In 2003, North American print Yellow Pages were worth roughly US$15.6 billion in annual revenues.

All of this is not to say that the market for Yellow Pages and local search are one and the same. There are serious, practical obstacles that paid search must address-the complexity of keyword bidding, limited ad inventory and the challenge of sales-if the industry is to more than superficially penetrate the SME market.

Currently about 17 percent of local SMEs that advertise use paid search (40 percent of small businesses do not advertise). Further, The Kelsey Group has estimated that the current addressable (not actual) market for local paid search is between US$1.16 and US$1.2 billion. Overture contends that local search revenues will be about US$1 billion by 2008.
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